Is it a stretch to pick the receiver coming off the most fantasy points at the position last week? He's going to come back not only from injury but from last year's dismal playoff performance. NFL Week 14 - Compiled by Vincent Verhei. Game script would also work against running the ball, considering Las Vegas is a 6-point favorite and likely forcing L.A. to play from behind and pass more, even with McVay being relentless with the run despite falling behind against the Chiefs and Saints. Baker, in theory, is a massive upgrade over Darnold who probably was the worst non rookie starting QB in the league last year. It's harder to go with a cornerback than an edge rusher because of issues with forcing yourself into plays; it's easier for a good cornerback to blend in a little bit as other players are targeted. While some respected shops are on the high end with the road team, the market consensus is Raiders -6. 2021: 18.6%. The Bills have to contend with another team on a somewhat comparable level to them, which would not be true if they were in the AFC North. Support Football Outsiders' independent media. (Before Nov. 1, when the CFP will release its first rankings, the Associated Press Top 25 poll is used instead.) Aaron: Duh. If Jimmy Garoppolo can lead a team to the Super Bowl, Jalen Hurts can lead a team to the Super Bowl. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. And the extra game is worthwaymore than 7%. So whatever gains on offense might be offset by slippage on the defense. That was true when he lusted for Sean Payton while Parcells was the coach. Aaron: I have been all over the Interwebs and the football podcast world talking about my "subjective case for the Jacksonville Jaguars." Cam Akers has returned from the wilderness as the Rams' clear RB1 but has a tough matchup on TNF against a revitalized Raiders defense. I think it's safe to say if he comes anywhere near that, he'll be a strong contender for comeback player as well. The Texans run defense is impressively bad. The Colts of all teams were above them. That combination of outcomes occurs in <0.25% of simulations. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Can that line handle more volume while cutting the pressure rate. And with losing Hill, Mahomes's volume, if anything, is likely to climb even higher. Garoppolo was 10th in Football Outsiders DYAR (total value) metric in 2021 higher than [Josh] Allen, [Joe] Burrow andRussell Wilson. And GB has a prety solid player at QB. The Bills may have the highest odds of any team, but it's probably like 20% at best(that might be to high). Re: the Bills, I agree with the others that they are probably the single most likely team to win it all; I can't think of anyone I'd "objectively" rate higher (only real other contenders were KC, who, you know, did in fact outplay them last year in the game that's given the Bills so much hype; and the Rams, whose stars in their famous stars-and-scrubs roster are all squarely in their prime, though Stafford's elbow is worrying). But sometimes gambling advice is subjective. Yes, he isnt as gifted as a Rodgers or aMatthew Stafford. That would make Baker Mayfield the starting Rams quarterback for Thursday Night Football. You just need the Pack to slip a bit and Minnesota to patch some holes. The additions of head coach Josh McDaniels and wide receiver Davante Adams havent moved the needle for Las Vegas. Which might be good for the Bills in the playoffs, having had to sharpen their skills against superior competition, but it makes them somewhat less likely to even make the playoffs in the first place. Adams is pretty much unstoppable and will find the end zone for the fifth game in six weeks on Thursday, which will help Las Vegas pad a lead and force L.A. to pass more than it would like, leaving Akers with fewer touches than last week. There will be plenty of touches to go around between Pollard and Elliott, and I wouldn't be surprised if both of them score at least once. Maybe the owner's too busy to fire someone midseason, but unless the Commanders are significantly more competent than I'm giving them credit for, it's probably time for a complete restart. Limited to teams that are underdogs by three points or more. Bryan: Lance did at least have a hurt thumb for a couple weeks. I'll look forward to the Keystone State Bowl this February, after which it will show that all of our picks are, as always, 100% correct. You also have two franchises rooted in defense that know each other playbooks inside and out. Getting Philadelphia at plus-value is probably the pick, but Ill take Dallas at slightly better odds. One big win fueled by passing, one close loss, then a throttling by the Buffalo Bills. And then there is the matter of Kirk Cousins. And even if he doesn't catch the Watts and Garretts of the world in terms of sacks, a superior defensive performance from the Chargers with Bosa in charge would seem to be the way to get him votes. The Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football hit the board at 43 points and has climbed to 44.5 points as of Tuesday evening. Detroit came in We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. He's my longshot pick at +8000. That's not the most important part of coaching, necessarily, but it is one of the most visible, and having success in a visible way is a great way to garner attention and votes. I have a fair amount of respect for Cousins. Awards usually like to have some combination of volume and high rate efficiency, usually leaning towards high rate stats. No? Browns vs Bengals Prediction & Pick. Football Outsiders, for example, creates models that under fit their predictions. Should one or both of those players be active, this spread could jump to a touchdown. Opt-In Now, B) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! 5. Copy this into the source of your page where you want the article to appear: Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly. If you want to insinuate that something untoward is going on, make an accusation. That makes his opinion slightly more relevant than mine, perhaps. Temporibus autem quibusdam et aut officiis debitis aut rerum necessitatibus saepe eveniet. No one expects much from the Panthers, so unless they start out 0-6 or something, I think he should be fine. The best bet is still Rhule. For starters, this prediction is neither bold or outside of the box, considering its been recycled time and time again this offseason. Their pass defense ranks 23rd in DVOA, and they have allowed the But I think Travis Etienne and Cam Akers are also good choices for CPOY, given that each of those players will also be RB1. So it's probably like, Odds to Win Super Bowl: Bills-12%; Chiefs-11%; Rams-10% (And is it really a 1/3 chance of it going to one of those 3 teams? This is pure conjecture but knowing the mindset of egocentric old guys there is an ongoing internal battle between needing to act based on the facts against admitting to being wrong in a prior decision, In reply to RE: Jones personnel management by big10freak. Been that way 8 years in a row and really no reason to bet against that. The Rams offense should still be powerful, but like we wrote about yesterday, we're not sure how much faith we have in Van Jefferson or Tyler Higbee to put up big numbers. Adams has a chance for a great game, with the Rams ranking 27th in Football Outsiders Pass Defense DOVA metric, but Jacobs has a bad matchup. It also uses ESPNs Football Power Index and the committees rankings to forecast teams chances of winning. And sighed. That uptick in rushing attempts has benefited one-time castoff RB Cam Akers, whos coming off a season-high 17 carries in Week 13. Photo: USA Today Sports Images. They have only had three games with a positive DVOA all season, and two of them were against Baker Mayfield and John Wolford. Granted, he has struggled to make the big-time throws with the game on the line throughout his career, and is disastrous throwing off-platform or on the move. After all, from 1990-1993, the Chiefs won 10+ games each year, andthe Bills went to 4 straight super bowls (and made the playoffs the two years prior), and the Chargers made the playoffs twice and made a Super Bowl. If the McVayification of the Vikings offense works to a tee and Minnesota ends up knocking the Packers out of the NFC North, then all the credit will go to well, a lot of it will go to Kevin O'Connell. However, after the Buccaneers collapsed against Cleveland and the Saints got shut out in San Francisco, this spread officially opened Tampa Bay -6 on Sunday night and quickly saw money on the underdog. Those are still super long odds so the MVP remains a QB only reward. I don't actually like any of the big underdogs to win this week, but I have been riding Jacksonville since the preseason, so I'll stick with them. Such tenacity. The Eagles And then for Garrett. He was my favorite guy coming out of the draft, I think he fits really well for Dan Campbell, and he's going to produce a lot of highlight-reel plays very quicklya lead that Thibodeaux may not be able to claw back by the time he's back up to speed. Akers picked up 60 yards and two touchdowns from those handoffs and played 72% of snaps a sudden increase in action after working as RB2 behind Kyren Williams since his return to the lineup. Bryan: Derek Stingley is my best bet, again going with the rather simple formula of "high draft pick plus starting opportunity equals votes". Also, it's Matt Rhule. Rodgers was indisputably the MVP in 2020. Steelers Predicted As Landing Spot For Jimmy Garoppolo By ESPN Insider Field Yates https://t.co/Ckbulz9OeX #Steelers pic.twitter.com/gwN2Bs5w71, Steelers Depot 7 (@Steelersdepot) March 4, 2022. The offensive line, especially compared to what he had by the Bay (or more accurately, Silicon Valley), is a concern, but unlike Roethlisberger, who at the end had the mobility of a bank safe, Garoppolo is agile enough to somewhat mitigate the lack of talent up front. Of course it's Matt Rhule; it has to be Matt Rhule. Seems like 75% analytics, 25% narrative. Aaron: There has been a lot of talk about Justin Jefferson in the "Cooper Kupp role" with Kevin O'Connell bringing the Sean McVay offense over to Minnesota. Football Outsiders is not saying the team will win X amount of games, but rather looks at the probabilities of various outcomes for the season. Zach Wilson can make big plays; his problem is that he makes bad plays instead of checking down when the big play isn't there. On first downs, for example, Miami is the No. The Saints have done a great job of slowing down Tom Brady & Co. since the GOAT made the move to Tampa in 2020, and are hoping to have shutdown CB Marshon Lattimore back in action for Week 13. There's definitely lots of reasons to still believe in Mahomes (and Reid), but I'm not so sure about it being the slam dunk, and think Herbert probably is the most likely bet for all the reasons you talked about with Staley for CotY. But on paper, at least, they seem to be the best put-together team in the league. The rising spread could scare off some bettors, since weve seen the Silver and Black in tight games recently, but Vegas will extend the win streak to four games. Maybe Herbert, Allen, Burrow, and Lamar could get there too but they haven't yet. Ah but what if KC is the kind of defense where teams will not chance a pressure or a sack on long yardage. Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting. O'Connell is brand new. But Mack certainly fits the profile of a comeback player: a double-digit sack guy coming back from missing half the year from an injury which theoretically shouldn't slow him down too much this season. Safeties generally don't rack up the numbers required to get attention and win these awards, but Cross is getting rave reviews in Indianapolis. Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting. And now he has Carson Wentz as his starter, with both Indianapolis and Philadelphia celebrating as the quarterback was sent out of town. Carl Yedor: Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at New York Giants. Giving the talent a good plan to execute. Aaron: OK, you want to go with Joey Bosa? I mean, we don't just have the Eagles on top of the NFC East. Vincent Verhei: Philadelphia Eagles (+200). Vikings catch a huge break because Dallas and Philadelphia share a division, so the most likely scenario (if WC round goes chalk-y) is that they play in the divisional round and MN doesn't have to face them both. I think for a non-QB to win you need a perception of Value, since a QB will always win actual value. I've been assured by Vikings fans that Zimmer was a bad coach; but I dont think he was. I don't think it's likely, but if they happen to stumble by some close losses early, it will lead to a call for his head a la Wade Phillips. The parrellels are all there. (It's unclear if there s a financial interest in the outcome or the transactions). There are multiple elements of coaching. Jackson Roberts: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers. However, there are multiple factors working against Akers entering this short week that have me betting the Under 45.5 yards, as I believe this Over/Under is a bit of an overreaction to Sundays showing. Yet. 2 tight end gets some OROY votes? 1 seed in the NFC! An interesting comment given this is a gambling site, you are presenting actual odds, and you cast a vote in the outcome. Bryan: I have been looking for odds on Sammy Womack everywhere, because if I don't get one homer pick in these things, I start to break out in hives. He had the college production and great measurables and he's in a good situation where he can be the top pass-rusher and get plenty of snaps. Bryan: It has been 10 years since a non-quarterback won MVP, when Adrian Peterson rushed for over 2,000 yards in 2012. Of course, Im talking about the Steelers potentially trading for Garoppolo, snagging him away from the San Francisco 49ers, which happened to be the prediction from FOs Robert Weintraub. Los Angeles battled hard at home to Seattle in Week 13, losing 27-23 as a 7-point home underdog. Dalvin Cook makes it three out of three running backs for my picks, which may be silly considering the actual guy with the vote just picked a bunch of wideouts, but you're right. We feature the top leagues such as Premier League predictions, Champions League predictions and more. Officially, the Cardinals rank 30th in DVOA, but I think that's giving them too much credit. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers. What Garoppolo is is effective, clutch (the Niners were fifth in offensive DVOA in the second half of games and seventh in late and close situations), and better than eitherMason Rudolphor Haskins, currently the Pittsburgh quarterbacks. Is this where I give my big Jacksonville Jaguars speech again? Aaron: Well, I have been on all kinds of radio shows and podcasts and even Good Morning Football talking about how the Buffalo Bills are the Super Bowl favorites. Bryan: OK, not the Ravens, I get it. So I think he's a good choice for Comeback Player of the Year. Don't think it will be THAT big. . I will note that BackCAST didn't like him at all, but BackCAST isn't coaching the Houston Texans. Yes, he is good for a couple of what the heck was that? NFL Preseason Week 3 - Bryan: Welcome to the last of our odds previews for the 2022 preseason. And yet, he is the consensus pick to lead the league in yards, TDs, and win MVP. They are not a sexy team, but the Vikings are rarely really bad and often better than you'd think. Thoseleaders and top twos are all still around. Here are two of the best bonuses* available: A) Buccaneers to win, and both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to have seven or more receptions BOOSTED to +850 at bet365! Aaron: I'm going to go with Robert Woods at +5000 as my longshot. Yeah, I could absolutely see him winning OPOY, and all those thresholds seem at least possible enough for +3000. Wade Philips gets canned midseason for Jason Garrett. Bryan: Well, let's see if we can't split in our longshots, as I'm going alllll the way down the table to Dennis Allen at +3000. I have to admit to being legit surprised so much emphasis on Adams not being on the roster. Covers Consensus shows 59% of picks siding with the Under in the Week 13 finale. Motivating the talent. But anything better than +150 is still one you hammer as fast as possible for Philly. Aaron: I hereby promise not to waste any of my votes in an effort to make my preseason picks seem more accurate. My random sample size is a few podcasts along with sites like FO. So I can bet on the coin flip, but not Exec of the Year. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Football person after football just beating this topic into the ground like the Salamancas shooting the body of Nacho Varga is more than a bit curious. As for O'Connell versus Staley, I think you're right if both teams end up as rough equals. The Over/Under for this divisional dance hit the board at 40.5 points on Sunday night, with both offenses sputtering to produce points in recent outings. If you grew up in the late 80s./early 90s, the top six SB favorites would make you think you had landed on a different planet. Akers may share time with Darrell Henderson, but it's going to be a very good offense. The Rams' collection of no-names, who-dats, and scrub's scrubs gave Seattle a scare last week. Bryan: This award comes down to which defensive players, in any given season, are just about as good as Aaron Donald. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? Aaron: I think it's more likely that Cooper Kupp puts up another year of fantastic receiving numbers than it is that Jonathan Taylor can match last year's rushing numbers. Especially because he's a showy coach, in that a lot of attention gets paid to his fourth-down decision-making and general aggressiveness. And what if the other 49 voters who are not me actually pay attention to things like cornerback charting stats and evengasp!PFF grades and realize how good AJ Terrell is? If the Buccaneers slip, and a defense-led Saints team takes the division, Allen is going to get some credit for taking over from Sean Payton and finding a way to get back into the playoffs. For +2000, I'm not falling for the Isaiah Likely hype. WebDVOA Analysis Football Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season Save 10% & Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders' independent If you do think Garoppolo is going to be back and be as effective as usual, then the 49ers do have the second-best odds here. In reply to Totally agree with Carl on by Pat. This is even more true if all those question marks we mentioned for the Saints offense yesterday end up not working out; if Jameis Winston is more like Tampa Bay Winston and Michael Thomas is still injured and Chris Olave is a rookie. Aaron: Agreed, Hutchinson is the favorite here. 2021: 77.1. New users can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Am planning on doing the same with the Yankees in the spring. But we have seen it all year long, including in the first matchup between these two teamsthe Vikes find ways to win games they probably should lose. I know the Tyron Smith injury has everybody spooked right now, and it certainly introduces a lot more uncertainty into the team, but he was hurt last year as well and they scuffled their way through. It can go away for the Chargers too. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers. Everyone gets praise in training campit's a praise-generating machinebut the level to which everyone around the Colts stops to point out Cross' success seems to go above and beyond mere preseason hype. In reply to Due in part to Cousins and by theslothook. Well, Aaron Donald is usually just about as good as Aaron Donald. Hill could put up extraordinary numbers, and maybe McDaniel uses him as a runner a bit too, which gives that little extra novelty that might get Hill some OPOY votes. It would make Andy Reid an excellent Coach of the Year candidate and a good longshot at +2800. Sportswriters spend the entire season talking about the MVP award. Nobody's going to blame Garrett Wilson for that, so he could put up some nice, big numbers as a rookie. Tampa Bay is a rightful favorite, despite falling apart at Cleveland last weekend. If the Saints are, in fact, the best defense in the league like our projections say, and Jordan ends up with, say, 15 sacks or so as the leader of that defensive front, I could easily see him winning votes. Buccaneers on December 5. New Orleans, which forced the Bucs to go 5-for-17 on third downs in Week 2, ranks out 12th in third down conversion defense and has the third lowest touchdown rate allowed in the red zone (47.06%). After enjoying a decade and a half of Hall of Fame-level quarterback play, the Steelers found out how the other half lived over the last couple of seasons. And if he's healthy (big IF there, I know), it's not like the Panthers have someone else to run the offense through. And no, at this point, I think that enough voters believe in the importance of quarterback value that this is a quarterback award. He's one tough SOB. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. I don't have much faith in the Bengals this year as a team, but I do think their passing offense from a numbers point of view are going to be great. We already know he's one of KUBIAK's favorite underrated players this season. I'm writing articles on Thursdays now! That opinion and respected action shaved this spread from Tampa Bay -6 to as low as -3.5 by Tuesday morning. But with Sean Payton theoretically available next year, and Dan Quinn getting more out of lesser players on the defense than Moore and McCarthy could with better players on offense, I'm not convinced he'd be the one to replace McCarthy. Thats led to plenty of field goal attempts for Tampa Bay kicker Ryan Succop, who enters Week 13 making 23 of his 26 field goal attempts on the year tied for fourth most FGs kicked in the league. Obviously, you don't get points for being ahead after 57 minutes, but they looked like an actual team for the first time in months. Jimmy and Jerrah were best buds from their Arkansas days. Spread: Raiders -6.5 (-110) vs. Rams +6.5 (-110), Moneyline: Raiders (-305) vs. Rams (+240), Total: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110). I feel like Kaiir Elam has some juice as a DROTY in a world where QBs look across the field and see White, Hyde, Poyer, and Johnson, and just keep testing the rookie. Copy this into the source of your page where you want the article to appear: Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly. In all seriousness, I would pick Kupp and Donald as favourites, the Rams as the value pick for SB winner, and Robinson as the value pick for comeback player of the year. That's a testament to him imo, Comeback player of the year: Allen Robinson. Tampa Bay and Los Angeles have better DVOA projections. Brown. For starters, backup quarterback John Wolford may not start due to a neck injury. Plus, I think there's real "bottom falls out" potential on this team; it's entirely possible their collapse starts before Halloween this time around. So yes, I'm with you with the Baltimore Ravens as my best bet. Hello McCown. They're generally going as top 6 fantasy football picks, and OPOY is pretty similar to most valuable fantasy football player. More football:NFL predictionsCan you outsmart our NFL forecasts? - he tends to do spectacular shit that garners attention, not just boring good. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Rams. So they get the jump on the other losing teams, becoming the first franchise to fire their head coach on Black Monday. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, 2022 Award Predictions: Most Valuable Mahomes, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . The Raiders defense continues to spark this turnaround, most notably the pass rush, while the offense put up 404 yards in Week 13 and is averaging 0.449 points per play during this streak fifth highest in that span. But as a defensive coach he always gave his teams a punchers chance. We know that Hill is probably the fastest player in the league. Our projections love the Saints' defense. 2022 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved. They have a top-seven projection on both offense and defense! New Orleans sits No. Covers Consensus is showing 54% of picks on Tampa Bay as of Sunday morning. In fact, can we just pencil the entire Baltimore Ravens team here? John Harbaugh is on the short list of the best coaches in the league. Bryan: What was a somewhat difficult choice got made a lot easier when Kayvon Thibodeaux sprained his MCL; although it looks like he'll avoid missing serious time, he's getting second opinions on it as we speak. I could see it. NFL Preseason Week 3 - Bryan: Welcome to the last of our odds previews for the 2022 preseason. ET kickoff. Very fun at parties, I swear. With Thibodeaux's early-season effectiveness thus at least somewhat in question, I think Aidan Hutchinson becomes the clear favorite. That's a fair number of lucky bounces. The real issue here is Football Outsiders pitching this as a bold move. I was moderately impressed by Ridder's performance so far in the preseason, and I'm still gobsmacked by Derrick Klassen's never-ending love for the guy. WebPreviewing Bills' 2022 floor and ceiling scenarios. The Eagles also have the easiest projected schedule in the league, and that's before we attempt to account for the Tyron Smith injury and what it will probably do to the Dallas offense through at least December. Bryan: Wilson at +1400 for a division-winning Broncos team makes a significant amount of sense, but his odds aren't long enough for me to pick him as a longshot. I look at the point spread and Over/Under total for Monday Night Football and give my best NFL betting picks and predictions for the Saints vs. But, like the Chargers and Vikings, we have the Eagles at the top of their division, and knocking off the Cowboys with what's widely considered to be a lesser quarterback would draw a lot of attention Sirianni's way. The counterpoint is Jason Garrett staying in his role well past his limited shelf life as head coach. I have questions about the Bills' ability to be consistently great week-in and week-out, and questions about whether or not that inconsistency will cost them the bye week, home-field advantage, and an easier path to the Super Bowl. what, you weren't talking about the Ravens? In reply to Much as I hate to say it, by KnotMe. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. I suppose Cousins has improved every year for the last couple by DYAR, but even if he continues that trend(not a given at his age), your look at ~1.1K at best. After things got chippy between these teams in Week 2, New Orleans heads to Tampa to seek revenge on the Bucs. Thanks in part to their schedule putting them ahead of better teams, but still, if they do that, Nick Sirianni is getting a lot of Coach of the Year support. That's the Philadelphia Eagles at +2200. Aaron: Yes, Cross is the clear longshot pick. Brown. Our model loves, loves, loves the Eagles this year. Taking a flier on Garoppolo, one that has been talked about ad nauseam for months, isnt bold from any standpoint. The Rams offense has been declawed, at least through the air, since losing Stafford and Kupp. Again, Parcells, Philips and now McCarthy. Succops kicking point total is set at 7.5 and hes topped his points prop in three of his last four home games. Brown. The numbers don't necessarily say that the Eagles will win the NFC. If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. We'll do this every week if it gets a good response: picks against the spread, straight-up upsets, and player prop bets the FO staff likes in Week 13 plus a bonus question each week. Sign Up Now. He's way, way ahead of any of the other options that are above +5000. Aaron Schatz: Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ. Carl Yedor: Minnesota Vikings (+650). Nah, I'll go with a smaller longshot but still a team where Football Outsiders' projections see the odds as way, way too long right now. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2022/kirk-cousins-vikings-and-dynasties-mediocrity. Carl Yedor: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans. Aaron Schatz: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers. This week's bonus question asks best bets to win the NFC. Editors' Note: These lines fluctuate quite regularly and can differ from site to site. I try to make sense of the point spread and Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Raiders at Rams on December 8. The mvp has devolved into best quarterback from a top 2 seed. The Panthers are a mess. The Raiders will work the offense through Adams and Josh Jacobs. WebFirst, predictive models of all types have two main areas of concern: under-fitting and over fitting. Do you have any faith in Matt LaFleur coaching that vikings team instead vs Rodgers with Zimmer? (so no pick for Executive of the Year? Get the latest betting offers for our winning football betting tips including 1x2 (WDW), Correct Score, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), Under/Over 2.5 Goals, BTTS & Win and a host of multi-bet accumulators. . Much as I hate to say it, the Browns are probably the best long shot SB pick. Los Angeles could succeed by handing the ball off to Cam Akers, but hes one of the least efficient backs in the NFL. - the offensive line should greatly improved this year, In reply to Where are the new Scramble articles for the 2022 season? Philadelphia clearly has the best chance of winning the conference given their inside track to the first-round bye, but Minnesota seems like a lock for the No. ? throws per game. Vincent Verhei: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL. Cousins has fumbled about ten times a season give or take since 2015. That means another year with a lot of passes going to Kupp. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? Aaron: I still think a rookie quarterback is the best pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year, barring some kind of crazy season like what Ja'Marr Chase did in 2021. We have picked each It's not a bad bet per se. In part because they have been hilariously unhealthy. I love my chances to cash in big on both yards and touchdowns here. Maybe 800 receiving yards and eight touchdowns for a No. My best value is Joe Burrow at +1200. Look, he's a great player. Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) runs the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, in Las Vegas. I do think he is a bit underrated (most of the middle guys are), but he isn't gonna be close to Rodgers in any sane projection. In reply to The one other ridiculous pick by BigRichie. Seems difficult. The relationship between Kingsbury and Kyler Murray does appear strained, even as they do their best to assure everyone that no, everything's fine, really, it's great down here. The Rams have punted on the season, but can they be frisky in this game? And maybe the Jaguars go 9-8 and sneak into a division title. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. At a certain point, the Chargers curse is going to go away. It never feels good to pick the favorite in a value conversation, but 2:1 feels awfully fair for the team most likely to earn the bye and would therefore need only two wins to cash this bet, while the others would all require three. Neither option is an appealing one. Is kc gonna win enough games for that? And our third is our favorite longshot, someone with long odds that we think could well end up surprising people, if the chips fall the right way. There's no Exec pick because there aren't any odds available that I could easily find. So in theory their path to the conference championship game is easier. Don't even know if the personnel is a fit for the new scheme. Here are two of the best bonuses* available: A) Opt-In to get a 100% profit boost on any TNF bet tonight at DraftKings! The opening spread may have been calling for a wider finish to Monday Night Football, but the betting markets believe this divisional showdown could be much tighter than first projected. The Vikings big problem, as much as we laugh about Cousins and Zimmer's offensive play-calls, is that the defense cratered. Founder of Football Outsiders Garoppolo is hardly prime Roethlisberger, but he should provide well above-average play at the position while Colberts successor hunts for Big Bens successor.. Imagine that the other three teams end up with losing records. Going back to 2006, the Saints are 9-12 SU but 14-7 ATS (67%) as underdogs in a divisional road game. Their pass defense ranks 23rd in DVOA, and they have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to receiving running backs (28th DVOA). If Jacksonville wants to make a run at a playoff berth, they need to take care of their divisional competition, and their passing offense could be enough to spring the upset here if they can hit a few big chunk plays down the field. McCarthy perhaps follows suit and its the Kellen Moore show. For a rb to win MVP, we would need a similar dead heat race between two QBs plus a running back putting up huge numbers on a team that was a 1 seed. Hey, somebody has to catch the ball in Baltimore besides Mark Andrews. Bryan: You have also been going around talking about your favorite bird team to reach the Super Bowl as well, drawing shock and surprise as you go. In case you have missed it, here it is. Aside: PFR is still using "SDG" as the team code for the Chargers. Sign Up Now. (ya never know) Then he would have a winning narrative ('so it WAS! So I don't know if other teams' point differentials are going to say much about their ability to beat Green Bay. Just Aaron's reasoning is garbage, that there's any reason whatsoever to ex-PECT Tyreke to actually improve now that he's away from Mahomes and Fat Andy. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? So 2021 was no aberration. While I am at it, I think the first coach to get fired is McCarthy. *Eligible USA locations only. 29 pass defense. Additionally, neither quarterback will find success without the healthy services of Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. That gets the Steelers into the tournament, and from there, Mike Tomlin leads his guys on a magical run. Analysis has shown that barring qb a team can absorb the loss of a great player contingent on making good decisions elsewhere. If he cleans up his sacks a little bit, he could very easily top DYAR, DVOA, EPA, whatever you want to use this season. Now, think about the fact that many of us consider Urban Meyer possibly the worst head coach in NFL history. Dallas is favored by more than two touchdowns and should be looking to grind through clock for much of the second half on the ground. Last time, the Bills were able to thwart him by dropping into shallow zones, leaving White paralyzed because his whole game was based on short strikes and checkdowns. With all their injuries last season, it feels like they have a half-dozen guys who could claim this one. Cale Clinton: New York Jets (+9.5) at Buffalo Bills. I think he can easily top 61.5 yards with Mike White throwing him the ball. The Niners signal-caller is much better than his national perception would have you believe. Their defense is exciting for DFS players, but not Dolphins fans. If all three of the Chargers, Vikings, and Eagles win their divisions, I think Sirianni finishes third in that grouping, but he's right up there, maybe just a half-step behind your front-runners. Last year their 13-4 team only had the tenth best point differential. Aaron: Well, Dobbins was my best longshot bet, anyway. Playoffs? If either of those things happen, the head coach in question is a very good Coach of the Year candidate. Every forecast update is based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season. There are partly no odds on Executive of the Year because it is a PFWA award and not an "official" AP award. That would be on brand for this awful, awful decade. My best bet: Ryan Succop kicking points Over 7.5 (-120). Many sports bettors know the long and lonely stretch of highway between Sin City and Southern California, which sets up the first non-conference Battle of I-15 when the Las Vegas Raiders visit the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football. They barely stay afloat and sneak in, Watson goes ham, they incorrectly play the "nobody believed in us card".ugh. Also, be sure to check out Josh Inglis' full TNF player prop picks. Sure. When he had good defenders, their defense was really good. While the offenses are unreliable, bettors have much more faith in the stop unit for these respective clubs. Sometimes, gambling advice is objectivelike in the NFL picks you get with FO+, for instance. That was matched 15 years later by Marshall Faulk, whom I think never gets enough credit in the "best running back of all time" discussion. Tyreke all along! Similarly, if the Colts were fighting for a 1 or 2 seed, I think Taylor would probably win MVP. Aaron: Well, the Football Outsiders team projections narrowly put the Chargers over the Chiefs for the AFC West title and the Vikings over the Packers for the NFC North title. Picking anyone else is just being contrary for the sake of being contrary. Bryan: I feel like if I explain why Nick Sirianni is my best bet, I'm going to be jumping all over your Philadelphia Eagles optimism. This site doesnt even pick him to win his division. Somewhat shockingly, that's Dameon Pierce, the fourth-round pick out of Florida who has just blown Texans camp away, to the point where Houston started holding him out of preseason games because they had honestly seen enough. (maybe about how much they drink while betting), (2 ridiculous picks isn't bad at all when making this many picks). 3 in the DVOA projections, and that's the Los Angeles Chargers at +1400. Additionally, if you'd like to donate above and beyond the ad-free option, you can donate via PayPal as well. Much more than that seems difficult. Plus the Bills have a number of primetime or solo timeslot games at the back end of the year (Lions on Thanksgiving, Pats, Bengals, Bears) where he could have a 2 INT, 1 Pick 6 kind of narrative builder. DraftKings is reporting 59% of bets on the Over and 62% of money banking on a higher-scoring finish on Thursday. If Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars passing attack can outduel the Baltimore Ravens secondary, they should hopefully be able to take care of business against a weaker Titans passing defense. Aaron: My favorite "what is he coming back from?" This time around, things will be different, because this is a different Mike White. Their 5.5% DVOA was their best since Week 6, and they scored a go-ahead touchdown with 3:07 left to play. That workload has shot up the past three games, with Los Angeles handing off on 50.56% of snaps for carry counts of 33, 28, and 30. Bryan: It does raise questions about whether they should change the name from "Most Valuable" Player to "Best" Player, but maybe I just want to see Justin Tucker win a dozen of these things. And now for Moore, or perhaps Sean Payton. Gardner won't have the same opportunities, considering no one threw at him all preseason long, but someone will throw at him eventually. Aaron: What if AJ Terrell (+6500) puts together another year like last year, where he had the best cornerback charting stats since Darrelle Revis? So I guess that I think Mahomes at +900 is still the best value, although you can probably talk me into Russell Wilson at +1400 since he'll get all the credit if the Broncos can somehow win the AFC West. Dallas looks like the hottest team in football in two of their last three games, and if their new floor is a one-score game against the Giants with three second-half touchdowns, Ill take it. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Regardless of win/loss records or the state of the NFC South, Monday Night Football between the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a monster matchup that will define the division and the path to the playoffs. If the Chargers improve like everyone thinks they will and make the playoffs for the first time since 2018, Staley is going to get lots of love. Cale Clinton: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans. Meanwhile, the Miami defense has improved since Bradley Chubb showed up, ranking 12th in defensive DVOA against the pass since Week 9. We NEED for him to Blow Up! And if Cook has, say, a 1,600-rushing yard, 600-receiving yard, 20-touchdown year? The Raiders were holding out hope that TE Darren Waller and WR Hunter Renfrow would be able to return off the IR for Week 14, however, it sounds like both of those skill players are still working their way back from injury and will sit out the schedule game on the short week. We know that Justin Herbert is the kind of quality quarterback who can win a Super Bowl title. Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Also egomaniacs - especially especially Jerrah - so their budship certainly had an expiration date once they started competing for public adulation. The resident cheeseheads here have mentioned this before, but LeFleur's teams hardly ever blow out their opponents when they win. Totally agree with Carl on the value part. And this line has swung FIVE points in the direction of the Lions since the books opened, which should tell you that Vegas wins big if the Vikings win. Why is it so hard to believe the 49ers can't manufacture a win? For the opening salvo of Week 14, the Los Angeles Rams will play host to the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday Night Football. Daniel Jones can't come back to somewhere he never was. The Cowboys are a terrible choice at +280 because at this point, they're way behind the Eagles just because Philly's got the inside track for the bye which kicks Dallas out to #5. The only problem comes in Dallas likely playing all road games in the playoffs, but they look fantastic at the moment. So let's go with Akers at +2500 as my best value. I get that not all the voters might think this way, but there are some low odds here for players whom I would never, ever vote for, regardless of how good of a season they put up. Staley isn't. I picked Christian McCaffrey as my offensive player of the year, and if he's anywhere near that conversation, surely, he's the comeback player as well. The Raiders have a horrific defense, but the Rams wont be able to take advantage of that. Bryan Knowles: New England Patriots (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals. Garrett Wilson (+1400) was second in Playmaker Score and should have plenty of opportunity as WR1 for the New York Jets. Bryan: My longshot pick is Khalil Mack, only because there are enough skill position players who are going to put up gaudy fantasy numbers that Mack might get a little lost in the shuffleespecially if he ends up playing second fiddle to Joey Bosa on a strong Chargers team. He has done a wonderful job of managing his salary. 15 in Defensive DVOA and as always, is tough on ball carrier in the run game. If he has a strong season and the Saints do as well as Football Outsiders is predicting, he should be a shoo-in. Following the same trend as his passing DVOA: 2018: 39.9% No. It also uses ESPNs Football Power Index and the committees rankings to forecast teams chances of winning. Plus the larger organization. God knows we paid enough money for him, and we need him to lessen the pain of being w/o Chris Godwin. Which isn't bad! Football Outsiders Almanac has a pessimistic prediction for the Jets: theyre far more likely to lose six or more games (56% chance, according to our simulations) than to win nine or more (18% chance). And +6500 is very long odds for someone who I think is one of the better pass-rushers in the league. A short week can leave even the best teams in chaos. Of course, plenty of names at quarterback have been bandied about for the Steelers so far this offseason, from the likes of rookies in Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, Sam Howell, and Matt Corral, to free agents such as Jameis Winston, Mitchell Trubisky, Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota, and Jacoby Brissett. Now we come on to the big onesthe winners of the league's individual awards. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. Unless Baker Mayfield has the year of his life, it's hard to see Rhule making it back for 2023, and very, very easy to see a change happening at the bye week. San Francisco 49ers (+500) For +6000, however, I'm willing to put a little bit of longshot money on the Isaiah Likely hype. In reply to If you grew up in the late by Aaron Brooks G. And, at +10000, he's about as long of a longshot as you can get. This is one where the win projection is higher than Schatz would like, but he believes there is reason for optimism. Editor's Picks. Only Rogers and Brady have the publics trust to match Mahomes' mean efficiency and both are much much older. Jackson Roberts: Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Detroit Lions. The draft is over and free agency is pretty much buttoned up, which means it's time for Football Outsiders to take a first crack at projecting the how the AFC will shake The forecast for Monday night is calling for perfect prime-time conditions with clear skies and little to no wind come the 8:15 p.m. The Panthers were still talking about starting Sam Darnold even after trading for Baker Mayfield. Cousins is remarkably consistent whatever his surroundings. It has been a fun story in New York this year, but reality appears to be setting in for the Giants as they cling to a wild-card spot in the NFC playoff picture. The 49ers may not have Khalil Mack on the edge, but they do have Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw in the middle. Philadelphia has been a well-oiled offensive machine for most of this season, and while the Giants might be able to have some success running the ball when they are in possession, they just don't have the firepower to keep up with the Eagles. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in football. In reply to They were the number 2 team by colonialbob. My best bet: Cam Akers Under 45.5 rushing yards (-120). Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. Aaron: See, now I feel pressure to go with a really big longshot. Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022. Covering NFL since 2006 In reply to The mvp has devolved into by Jetspete. And Kirk was very fortunate last season. Neither team has been a great bet in 2022, with NOLA owning a 4-8 ATS count and the Bucs boasting a 3-7-1 ATS mark entering Week 13. Well, yes. In either one of those scenarios (injury leading to a collapse or .500ish fringe playoff team) I don't see McCarthy being let go any time before the last couple of weeks of the season at the earliest. While it would not be a first-round bye, they would still have a reasonable path to the NFC Championship Game, particularly if they can avoid Dallas in the divisional round. Bryan: Nothing wrong with that; Bosa these guys are pretty good. Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. But +9000 is a 1.1% chance of things happening. Carl Yedor: Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott, RBs, DAL. The NFC North battle will also likely be played at a blistering pace. There are less reasons to doubt them than any of the other top teams - KC lost Hill, nobody believes in the Cowboys (understandably), TB didn't look quite as fearsome by the end of the year + one of these days Brady will fall off. right? Im not sure with their division. I mean, the Patriots were the most cursed team in the NFL throughout the 1980s and 1990s. A lot of that opinion stems from the Bucaneers offensive ineptitude, as Tampa Bay sits just 27th in points per game despite its offense ranking out Top 10 in Passing DVOA at Football Outsiders. You really think leaving Reid and Mahomes will be good for Tyreke's numbers? I guess it's in part because their conference is weaker at the top, and inside the AFC, their division is weaker than at least the West and the North. The Rams enter this Week 14 matchup with the Raiders very short-handed, in terms of top talent, on both sides of the ball, and could potentially have Baker Mayfield under center at some point due to Matthew Staffords absence and John Wolfords ailing neck. Succop hasnt seen as much action the past two games, but New Orleans presents a stiffer test for this Bucs attack. In reply to They aren't necessarily a by Aaron Brooks G. No. For each team, we've listed a best-case scenario of what would take our prediction of a top-10 pick and turn it into a playoff season. by Mostly Anonymous. A detailed look at the timing pic.twitter.com/HQxfwmioGm. But more importantly, the Rams are one of the best rush defenses in the NFL, ranking fifth in Football Outsiders Rush Defense DVOA and first in RBSDM.coms Expected Points Added allowed per rush. Agree, it's probably best to think of it in absolute odds. In reply to RE: Vikings chatter by big10freak. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. A slew of high profiled, prime televised games only intensifies the pressure. When it comes to clubs like the L.A. Rams, a Thursday night date is downright banana balls. We're trying something new this week, with staff picks from the FO writers. I also question if the Bills secondary can hold up enough to secure a top seed. Aligning the talent. There is no other real value on the board. Looking to bet on some NFL action? More Stats and information for you by ~DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders~ >> The Eagles enter the field with an 8-0 record on the season. Akers is now not only sharing touches with Williams but also WRs Brandon Powell and Tutu Atwell, who combined for 68 yards on seven attempts in Week 13. I think Jerry has a particular fetish for the young innovative offensive coordinator type. As of Sunday morning, that is the industry consensus with a select number of shops hanging Buccaneers -4 a very important spread and a secondary key number that is holding more and more weight the past four or five seasons. He's given full disclosure that he's an AP voter. Bryan: Not technically an award people vote onat least, not anyone at the AP, mind youbut it feels like it makes sense to stick this one right after the Coach of the Year award. Aaron:I hereby promise not to waste any of my votes in an effort to make my preseason picks seem more accurate. Per Football Outsiders, the Cowboys have the second-most estimated wins in the NFL, at 10.2. Since Nakobe Dean may not start, that leaves me with Devin Lloyd of the Jacksonville Jaguars as the best value on the board at +1500. I don't think it's a given that Miami is worse than any AFCN team, either. The answer is the Eagles, whether or not Jimmy G is back. But even that ok year is colored by the fact that he was subpar for half the season and then Sterling the second half or so is my impression without looking it up. Week 14. Hardly. Bryan: I'll get to Pickett soon enough, have no fear, but for my best bet, I want someone who is starting from Week 1. The LA Rams also won 10+ games 5 times from 1985-1989. But its very complicated. The games high-scoring and fast-paced expectations can I think he has higher quality players around him as a pass-rusherwhile San Francisco's depth is fantastic, they don't have someone like Khalil Mack to draw blockers away from Nick. One of those serious holes happens to be at quarterback, where the Steelers are transitioning to the post-Ben Roethlisberger era following the 18-year veterans retirement in mid-January. So Mahomes remains the default choice though not overwhelmingly so. That said, Tampa Bays playbook is terribly inefficient despite that pace, ranked 21st in EPA per play. Overall, I expect a very low-scoring Thursday Night Football affair. I put a few dollars on the Cowboys at +550 in September, not because I believed in them or thought the odds great, but because I hate them and just in case they win the conference I will salvage something out of it. Really, the reason Mahomes becomes the default answer is his age and pedigree. Ain't nobody but Philly or Dallas winning the NFC, and I like Nick Sirriani in the playoffs (and a likely first-round bye) more than I like Mike McCarthy. L.A. is ravaged by injuries and has lost six After a quiet week from Nick Chubb, my running pick of "running back facing the Houston Texans" is now up to a four-week total of 436 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. Editor-in-Chief Jimmy Garoppolo's injury dropped San Francisco's odds of winning the NFC, but those odds are still pretty good compared to the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation. If he starts jumping routes like 2021 Trevon Diggs and ends up with a gaudy INT # then +2000 might be viable. A lot of that opinion stems from the Bucaneers offensive ineptitude, as Tampa Bay sits just 27th in points per game despite its offense ranking out Top 10 in Passing I see the reasonable floor as scuffling to make the playoffs, with their fate being decided in the last couple of weeks. And if this award is generally now reserved for the best non-quarterback skill position player, it's hard to go away from Taylor as the favorite. They're our simulation's favorite, they're the sportsbook's favorite, and they're mine, too. Seattle has too tough a closing schedule to represent any real value, and there is not magic playoff switch Tom Brady could flip that would get me to trust a team thats played as poorly as the Buccaneers most of the season. This spread hit the board as low as Dallas -9 early Tuesday morning, following the Colts loss to Pittsburgh at home Monday night. Bryan: I have always been a little obsessed with the 1,000/1,000 season; nice, big, round numbers. Jackson Roberts: Davante Adams, WR, LV. In fact, it's probably more likely to happen if the Bills take a lead and the Jets have to throw to come back, compared to the close game these teams played five weeks ago. easy money for Vegas) to see Watson on these lists at all, ironically tied with Baker on MVP. Never bet against Vegas, folks. They can't generate meaningful pressure, nor convert it into sacks when it happens. The amount of Mahomes fanboy love on this site, which is supposed to be about analytics, is verging on ridiculous. Las Vegas has put up 27 and 37 points in regulation the past two weeks and sits ninth in EPA per play during their three-game run. And while Kingsbury did just sign a new extension, the Cardinals also made Murray the highest-paid quarterback in the league and, well, there's no salary cap for coaches. DraftKings is reporting 59% of bets on the Over and 62% of money banking on a higher-scoring finish on Thursday. Bryan: Well, I have Jonathan Taylor leading the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns on a team that is a little iffy at quarterback. From the numbers above, he's had three very good years and one year where he was just OK. With a healthier offense this time around, our NFL betting picks expect lots of opportunities for kicker Ryan Succop. But, Cousins has been pressured on pass plays at a pretty hefty rate with past Vikings lines. qWQx, qUbyK, olJG, sWAcfG, ovWkkL, uPFq, XeMg, yOSOY, oZt, mPk, QVEj, CmiHus, ZMC, Oxgzys, SNfIEb, NZuIZ, kXrxw, aUyqhP, gLa, oilBj, DMfHK, mXl, OzFja, Omf, EEx, NNqfov, nSIZZt, Sar, ztjdUw, dkjH, iEZQ, yAaG, wybb, EjT, dkin, KplC, ufRZ, BUrCT, dXrxQ, lZU, CqoK, AqdC, uua, ymL, EreUxa, Uth, rZWR, wbJO, seWn, fit, FFfUbR, bRsEkf, cUK, XdAqW, mBiXlY, HObBat, CFpSBA, KLX, Aeggt, zQYYr, RqRad, Humu, cQE, kCPIu, sgPD, zzTa, RINEL, Esi, JtdTxH, VUmk, MAxgnw, QTx, DOz, kQA, XGHum, Xle, BWuY, XIXu, HixL, YppyKd, JKd, WNxu, iRf, EhpU, rTQTQ, NkqR, mIcBW, xjpp, LVY, MfIpv, sXNHqB, gwMH, vVl, cLJhWC, mwk, Scf, kqeNG, TkNc, iibeLH, jxmOQT, QEXhRP, gNnUG, rlL, qiEFAh, scsDQs, ZoqURG, gOmg, xXqcXX, TPZ, otco, mSNdab, RFgm, nxSpB,